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10 Things You Should Know About Recessions
While economic recessions may not be identified until months after they begin, we know it’s a topic on everyone’s mind. I wanted to share these “10 Things You Should Know About Recessions”. These points are a great reminder of what “recession” really means in economic terms - without the media hype. I especially like the last point,“Stocks can grow when the economy contracts: Although down markets sometimes coincide with recessions, stocks actually produced positive returns during seven of the 13 recessions since 1945.”
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Inflation And Retirement: What You Need To Know
Are you worrying about rising inflation and your retirement plans? You’re not alone. Many investors throughout the U.S. have the same concerns. At any time, inflation is the unknown that complicates retirement planning. This article from Forbes outlines many of the considerations we discuss with our clients.
One of the main points to remember is “don’t panic about inflation – but don’t ignore it, either”. Don’t overcompensate or take on too much risk, but recognize that some risk is necessary. Stocks do a better job over time at outpacing inflation than savings interest rates will. “The 100-year track record for inflation pegs it at about 3% while the S&P 500 earns about 7% each year, accounting for inflation.“
Let’s talk about your retirement plan and the best path forward in the current environment.
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What Is A Recession?
Lately, there has been a lot of talk about bear markets, falling stocks, and the potential for a recession, but how do we officially define a “Recession”? This article from Forbes Advisor walks through the various factors that define a recession, the many potential causes and effects of a recession, as well as a reminder that recessions are considered an unavoidable part of the business cycle.
If you have any questions or concerns, please don't hesitate to contact your advisor.
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Having a “bear” of a Time
It’s true that past performance is no guarantee of future results, but there are previous trends that are important to recognize. A bear market, or a prolonged drop in investment prices (usually by 20%), has historically been followed by a substantial market return in the following year. These markets can feel grizzly while we’re in the middle of them, but it’s important to be in the market to experience any returns when the market rebounds. Check out the data that illustrates this point in this article*. (https://static1.squarespace.com/static/5ee3a0f2aea7f71a17bcde46/t/62aa89d48fc26b335c4b7090/1655343575169/PGIMInvestments-Cost-of-Missing-a-Rebound-May2022.pdf)
*While we recognize this article as a clear and concise perspective on the current market, the sharing of this piece should not be considered an endorsement of PGIM Investments.
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Fishing & Phishing
Last month, Mike and I had the opportunity to go deep sea fishing in Florida. We left our phones on shore and really unplugged! While Mike reeled in a shark, I got to thinking about the dangers of fishing and ‘phishing’… and reeling in something dangerous and unexpected. Check out these tips from Fidelity on protecting yourself from phishing scams and other cyber-criminal schemes. Don’t be the fish that get’s hooked by the bait!
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The Price of Panic
Volatile markets during a crisis can make investors anxious and increase the desire to "play it safe". However, safer investments that calm our anxiety may be a mistake for long-term investors.
Check out this article, "The Price of Panic," about how stress and the news cycle can create a bleak picture that leads to impulsive investing decisions.
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What are the opportunities in sustainable transportation?
With the release of the latest IPCC Climate Change Mitigation report and commitments from auto manufacturers to go electric in the near future, there has been a lot of focus on electric vehicles - but that's not the only opportunity to consider when investing in sustainable transportation. In this article, Global Market Strategies Meera Pandit, shares more on the broader EV ecosystem, such as batteries, EV chargers, and electrification of the energy grid that are expected to see impressive growth. She also has a word of caution about new EV automakers that may not be able to back up their product.
Let us know if you have any questions about sustainability and your portfolio.
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Ukraine and the U.S. Economy
As we watch the news and the markets, one source we’re paying attention to is David Kelly, the Chief Global Strategist as JP Morgan and an excellent economist. We wanted to share his latest insights with you related to the impact of a partial or total cutoff of Russian energy, rising oil prices, inflation, and why David says these factors probably wouldn’t trigger a U.S. recession.